The Effect of Length of Forecast Horizon on Rational Aggregation in Long-Term Forecasting of Energy Systems Development

  • Yu. D. Kononov Melentiev Energy Systems Institute Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia
  • D. Yu. Kononov Melentiev Energy Systems Institute Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia
  • S. V. Steklova Melentiev Energy Systems Institute Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia
Keywords: aggregation, energy sector, forecast error, forecasting time frame, Monte Carlo simulation, uncertainty

Abstract

The paper examines the rational aggregation of models that are employed to address energy sector forecasting challenges specific to various forecasting time frames. Possible approaches are proposed. The paper concludes with estimates of the potential impact of the magnitude and nature of input data uncertainty on forecast and aggregation errors.

Published
2018-04-25