Hierarchical Modeling in Projection Studies of the National Energy Sector Development

  • Yuri D. Kononov Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia
Keywords: energy sector, projections, uncertainty, models, hierarchy


The focus of the paper is the evolution of methodological tools for long-term projections of the national energy sector development. The research highlights the importance of considering the growing uncertainty of the future when determining the rational hierarchy of employed economic and mathematical models. We propose adjusting their composition and the degree of aggregation depending on the projection time frame.