An Express Methodology for Calculating the Reliability of Power Supply Systems with Autonomous Power Sources
Autonomous power sources are widely used in systems for power supply to industrial facilities, especially in the oil and gas industries that have affordable energy carriers. These sources can be used both separately and in combination with centralized power supply, as primary, backup, or emergency sources. Their operation is characterized by the features that affect power supply reliability and must be taken into account when deciding on their use in the stages of designing new power supply systems or modernizing existing ones. The use of methodology and software for calculating the reliability of systems with autonomous power sources in the stage of pre-project research can contribute to more informed decision-making. In this stage, there is no need and opportunity to consider all reliability issues in detail. Here, express methods are enough to take into account the main features of the systems functioning with autonomous or mixed power sources and to compare the proposed system options within a single methodological framework. Based on this, a methodology was developed to calculate the reliability of power supply systems with autonomous and mixed power sources. The proposed methodology employs semi-Markov random processes (Markov chains) and can be used in comparative reliability analysis of power supply options with autonomous and mixed power sources. It was implemented in software and is accompanied by an example of reliability calculation for power supply to a stationary platform for maintaining reservoir pressure in an offshore oil field.
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