Energy Systems Research
http://esrj.ru/index.php/esr
<p><em>Energy Systems Research</em> is an international peer-reviewed journal addressing all the aspects of energy systems, including their sustainable development and effective use, smart and reliable operation, control and management, integration and interaction in a complex physical, technical, economic and social environment.</p> <p>Energy systems research methodology is based on a systems approach considering energy objects as systems with complicated structure and external ties, and includes the methods and technologies of systems analysis.</p> <p>Within this broad multi-disciplinary scope, topics of particular interest include strategic energy systems development at the international, regional, national and local levels; energy supply reliability and security; energy markets, regulations and policy; technological innovations with their impacts and future-oriented transformations of energy systems.</p> <p>The journal welcomes papers on advances in heat and electric power industries, energy efficiency and energy saving, renewable energy and clean fossil fuel generation, and other energy technologies.</p> <p><em>Energy Systems Research</em> is also concerned with energy systems challenges related to the applications of information and communication technologies, including intelligent control and cyber security, modern approaches of systems analysis, modeling, forecasting, numerical computations and optimization.</p> <p>The journal is published by <a title="Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences" href="http://isem.irk.ru/en/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences</a>.</p> <p>The journal's ISSN is 2618-9992. There are 4 issues per year (special issues are available) in English.</p> <p>All articles are available online as Open access articles.</p> <p class="v1MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">In December 2023, the journal was added to the list of VAK-approved peer-reviewed scientific publications, in which the main scientific results of dissertations are to be published in the following scientific disciplines:</span></p> <p class="v1MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">1.2.2. Mathematical modeling, numerical methods, and software packages (engineering sciences),</span></p> <p class="v1MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">2.4.3. Electrical power engineering (engineering sciences),</span></p> <p class="v1MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">2.4.5. Energy systems and complexes (engineering sciences).</span></p> <p class="v1MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Indexed by: RSCI, CyberLeninka, Google Scholar, and Crossref.</span></p> <p class="v1MsoNormal">The journal is registered with Roskomnadzor. Certificate Эл № ФС77-84526 January 16, 2023</p>Melentiev Energy Systems Institute SB RASen-USEnergy Systems Research2618-9992Impacts of Institutional Transformations in Energy Markets: The Baikal Region of Russia
http://esrj.ru/index.php/esr/article/view/2024-04-0001
<p>The paper examines the evolution of institutional conditions in the electricity markets of the Baikal region from 2018 to 2023. The fundamental market conditions remained unchanged, however, the key changes followed the inclusion of the Republic of Buryatia and the Transbaikal Territory into the Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD), which has a set of unique institutional frameworks designed to invigorate the economy. These include targeted measures aimed at improving economic accessibility of electricity by averaging tariffs on electricity and subsidizing expansion of networks through investment support and leveraging the infrastructure available in the advanced development areas. Features of regional energy system of the Baikal region are analyzed comparatively. The regional power systems of the Transbaikal Territory and Buryatia are technologically inferior to those of their neighbors (the Irkutsk Region in the Siberian Federal District and southern regions of the Far Eastern Federal District). This technological disparity can be attributed to several key factors: a heavy reliance on thermal power plants, extensive wear and tear on infrastructure, and inadequate development of low-voltage networks. The study also examines the scale, structure, and dynamics of electricity consumption in the Baikal region and estimates economic accessibility of electricity for local population. Although the Republic of Buryatia and the Transbaikal Territory have comparable income levels and higher tariffs than Irkutsk Region, they experience the lowest electricity accessibility among all subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District. These data indicate that Buryatia and the Transbaikal Territory lack any significant competitive advantages in energy accessibility when compared to their neighboring areas.</p>O.V. DyominaS.N. Naiden
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2024-12-282024-12-287451310.25729/esr.2024.04.0001Environmental Prospects for Energy Sector Development in the Irkutsk Region
http://esrj.ru/index.php/esr/article/view/2024-04-0002
<p>The prospective development of the energy sector in the Irkutsk region depends on top-priority development strands of high-tech industries of the energy sector with advanced processing of raw materials, development of gas supply systems, and ensuring favorable environmental conditions. As it stands now, environmental conditions in the region are considered unfavorable, and energy facilities (most importantly, power generation facilities) affect all components of the environment in a significant way. Further expansion of coal-fired generation will contribute to more emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, as well as the production and accumulation of coal combustion residuals. Environmental issues of the energy sector can be partially addressed by large-scale gasification. Conversion to natural gas combustion at three major thermal power plants alone will reduce pollutant emissions by 1.5 times in the region. However, the commissioning of a modern coal-fired power plant can offset this effect, which eventually sets the region back to the baseline in terms of pollutant emissions and also entails a 2.5-fold increase in greenhouse gas emissions and a 2-fold increase in the production of coal combustion residuals. Gasification can prove instrumental in addressing environmental challenges faced by the energy sector locally, i.e., in the southern districts of the region. The expansion of coal-fired power generation will preclude complying with the requirements of the Clean Air Project, which is currently being implemented in the Irkutsk region.</p>E.P. Maysyuk
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2024-12-282024-12-2874142010.25729/esr.2024.04.0002The Coal Industry of the Irkutsk Region: Development Trends and Challenges
http://esrj.ru/index.php/esr/article/view/2024-04-0003
<p>The paper provides an update on the state of the coal industry of the Irkutsk region. It reviews the trends in coal production and supply with a breakdown by uses of coal. The main consumers of Irkutsk coal are power plants located in the Irkutsk region, while about 20% of the coal is exported. The analysis covers the factors that contribute to sustaining and growing the supply of Irkutsk coal, including the availability of commercial reserves of coal. The study highlights the priority areas and limitations of the coal industry development in the region.</p>L.N. Takaishvili
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2024-12-282024-12-2874213110.25729/esr.2024.04.0003Feasible Capacity of Renewable Energy Sources in the Irkutsk Region
http://esrj.ru/index.php/esr/article/view/2024-04-0004
<p>The paper contributes a comparative quantitative assessment of solar and wind power potential in the Irkutsk region. The research findings on solar and wind power potential are presented cartographically. The area covered by the Baikal Natural Territory proves the most favorable one for the deployment of renewable power. We identify the locations where it is feasible to use solar power plants to serve remote communities that are off the power grid of the Irkutsk region. Our study relies on an original technique for making fast estimates of the feasible capacity of solar power plants. The input data are surface observations coming from meteorological stations and the specifications of existing diesel power stations and future power plants. The total feasible capacity of solar power plants as part of hybrid energy complexes for remote and isolated communities of the region is estimated at 1.5 MW. The economic effect of their deployment is fuel savings of 470-480 tons/year and reduction of budget subsidies by almost 43 million rubles/year.</p>I.Yu. IvanovaT.F. TuguzovaN.A. Halgaeva
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2024-12-282024-12-2874323710.25729/esr.2024.04.0004Modeling the Development of Energy Systems of Remote Areas in the Context of the Energy Transition
http://esrj.ru/index.php/esr/article/view/2024-04-0005
<p>This study focuses on the relevance of modeling the long-term development of energy systems in the context of the energy transition. The comparative analysis of software products for the modeling of energy systems and complexes is presented. Open source software such as SpineOpt, PyPsa, Switch, TEMOA, and TIMES are discussed in more detail. Based on this comparative analysis, SpineOpt is selected for further use as it is most feature-rich. The use of SpineOpt is considered in modeling the long-term development of the energy system of Novikovo located on the Tonin-Aniva peninsula in the Sakhalin region. An overview of the energy system, outline of plausible development options, and chosen key technologies are provided. The time frame of modeling extends to 2050 with multiple scenarios of development of the area considered. The scenarios differed in the constraints imposed on CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and new capacity additions of renewables. For each scenario, the model produced the optimal dynamics of evolution of the electricity generation mix, along with estimates of costs, greenhouse gas emissions, and hydrogen and germanium production volumes. Total CO<sub>2</sub> emissions during the modeled timespan, which extended to 2050, were about 946 thousand tons under the most stringent constraints, and 2,458 thousand tons under moderate ones. At the same time, capital expenditures for the construction of energy facilities amounted to $51.6 million and $45.8 million, respectively. The solutions resulting from modeling enable identifying the most promising areas for development and technologies to be adopted.</p> Y.D. SeverinaV.A. ShakirovL.N. Takaishvili
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2024-12-282024-12-2874384810.25729/esr.2024.04.0005An Outlook for Alternative Fuel Demand in Road Transport: The Case of the Irkutsk Region
http://esrj.ru/index.php/esr/article/view/2024-04-0006
<p>The paper presents an approach to making projections of demand for alternative fuels in road transport with a focus on natural gas, electricity, and hydrogen. The proposed approach is based on chaining multiple simulation models (both econometric and deterministic) that capture the changes in the number of vehicles on the roads, sales structure, and energy efficiency. The models are tailored to available statistical data on the vehicle fleet in regions of Russia. We explore the main features of road transport in the Irkutsk region and project the demand for alternative fuels by the transport sector under the innovation-driven scenario of regional economic development. Despite recent vehicle purchases in the sector of municipal passenger transport and the increased motorization rate, today’s vehicle fleet is in need of renewal. The key takeaway from this study is that the growth of population will favor the market for vehicles running on alternative fuels; however, the market size depends on vehicle affordability, gas supply to the region, and government support.</p>D.V. MaksakovaS.P. Popov
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2024-12-282024-12-2874495810.25729/esr.2024.04.0006Expansion of the Prosumer's Heating System in the Context of the Transition to Carbon-Free Energy
http://esrj.ru/index.php/esr/article/view/2024-04-0007
<p>The paper discusses the key points to be considered when selecting an additional heat source as part of an intelligent integrated energy system. Modeling prosumers poses a number of challenges related to the implementation of their functional properties, especially when the prosumers manage their distributed energy resources. The transition to carbon-free energy in the heating sector implies the use of renewables, alternative heat sources, and electric heating. It is known that peak times of heat and electricity consumption mostly coincide, thus putting high stress on the energy system. If electric heating is the only heat source, even a short-term power outage halts the heating. Therefore, an additional source of heat is needed that will reduce the loads served by the power system and yield sizable annual cost savings. To that end, it is important to analyze the effects of various suitable sources that do not emit pollutants during operation. For this purpose, we consider possible configurations of heat sources and analyze them with respect to their energy efficiency and economic feasibility. This study presents a mathematical model of the prosumer. The model takes into account the constraints on heat generation from renewable sources, incorporates thermal energy storage into the arrangement of heat sources, adheres to the energy balance constraints, and finds the optimal option of heat network configuration. Mixed integer programming is utilized to formulate and solve the problem of the prosumer's heat network expansion in the context of the transition to carbon-free energy. As a result of the optimization, an additional source is selected to complement the main source, which notably reduces heating costs.</p>V.B. TashlykovaV.A. StennikovE.A. BarakhtenkoD.V. Sokolov
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2024-12-282024-12-2874596410.25729/esr.2024.04.0007Feasibility of Connecting Consumers in Isolated Communities to the Irkutsk Power System
http://esrj.ru/index.php/esr/article/view/2024-04-0008
<p>The study summarizes key data on public power supply to isolated off-grid communities in the Irkutsk region. We compile a list of candidate settlements that qualify for grid extension and indicate the substations that in all likelihood will be used to feed them. This includes a multi-factor analysis of economic performance of power supply to such settlements. We report the findings of a technical and financial feasibility study of connecting remote communities to the power grid. The feasibility is assessed based on consolidated costs of the construction of power grid facilities. The study identifies the settlements where it is most economically viable to link them to the power grid. Additionally, we assess the feasibility of connecting two large off-grid industrial consumers in the mining industry to the power system. The successful completion of these projects is a prerequisite for connecting two communities in Tofalariya to the grid.</p>I. Yu. IvanovaV.A. Shakirov R.A. Ivanov
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2024-12-282024-12-2874657010.25729/esr.2024.04.0008Prerequisites and Prospects for Hydrogen Energy Development in the Baikal Region
http://esrj.ru/index.php/esr/article/view/2024-04-0009
<p>A series of legislative documents has been adopted in the Russian Federation with the objective of promoting the development of hydrogen energy. The Irkutsk Region is one of the regions in which the establishment of a large-scale production facility for green hydrogen is planned. According to the Russian Atlas of Low-Carbon and Carbon-Free Hydrogen and Ammonia Production Projects, published by the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the total hydrogen production in Irkutsk Oblast is projected to reach 21,800 tons per year. The principal avenues for utilization are expected to be the domestic market and export to countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The high cost of hydrogen transportation will render export a suboptimal economic strategy in the medium to long term. Export of hydrogen may be feasible through the establishment of a hydrogen green certification system, which would allow for trade of hydrogen without its physical relocation. In this case, the utilization of hydrogen within the region is necessary. The objective of the study is to ascertain the optimal applications of hydrogen and the advancement of hydrogen technologies.</p>O.A. BaldynovS.P. Popov
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2024-12-282024-12-2874717510.25729/esr.2024.04.0009Optimal Sizing of Hybrid AC/DC Distributed Generation Systems with On-Site Renewables for Off-Grid Power Supply to Remote Areas
http://esrj.ru/index.php/esr/article/view/2024-04-0010
<p>This study proposes a self-contained hybrid power system with DC and AC voltage buses connected to renewable and conventional energy sources to supply power to remote areas. The conventional sources are meant to serve as a backup for renewables to meet the demand during power shortages in the system. This research focuses on integrating an optimal structure of an off-grid system consisting of PV and WT generators with a battery energy storage system (BESS) and a diesel generator set (DGS) to ensure high reliability of power supply to a remote area. We contribute a machine learning algorithm (TLBO) for optimal sizing of the installed capacity of the PV-WT-BESS-DGS hybrid system components. The algorithm relies on the original multi-objective function to determine the most advantageous values of unit capacities for PV and WT plants, as well as the number of batteries and diesel generators, to meet the demand in the hybrid system under different scenarios of PV and WT power shortage.</p> <p>The optimization problem is solved considering the variability of meteorological conditions as manifested in the random and uncertain intermittency of PV and WT generation as well as in the stochastic nature of the electricity consumption process. To enhance the efficiency of its solution, this study seeks to cluster these processes and identify common scenarios for the data set of hourly measurements of PV and WT generation and loads during the year. We use k-means clustering to determine the number of clusters for PV, WT, and loads for representative geographical areas. The study reports the results of the analysis of optimal configurations for a hybrid AC/DC system made up of PV, WT, BESS, and DPS in these areas.</p>N.R. RakhmanovHuseyngulu B. GuliyevF.Sh. IbrahimovE.V. Mammadov
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2024-12-282024-12-2874768310.25729/esr.2024.04.0010Preliminary Estimates of Economic Implications of Small-Scale LNG Airship Transportation to Remote Areas
http://esrj.ru/index.php/esr/article/view/2024-04-0011
<p>The paper is concerned with preliminary estimates regarding the impact of transporting small-scale LNG to remote locations via airship on the power output. The main production sites, assumed as sources of small-scale LNG supplies, are presented and the leading airship manufacturers in Russia are identified. The study involves estimating the cost of different options for energy supply to remote areas, including the use of petroleum products and coal. Thus, the effects for the consumer are estimated and the economic implications are assessed with a detailed description of inter-industry links. The study reveals that the manufacturing industry and the energy sector are impacted to the greatest extent. The results of the calculations are however debatable. The success of the project heavily depends on the redirection of currently used petroleum products, whose production makes a significant contribution to the economy and the budget, to other markets. On the other hand, a considerable share of the cost of petroleum products is subsidized, which in the case of switching to natural gas will free up the state's financial resources. Given the ambiguity of the conclusions for the project of small-scale LNG airship transportation to remote areas, other domains of airship use are proposed and described. These include transportation and logistics, the oil and gas sector, forestry, the electric power industry, as well as the social initiatives and housing construction. The paper concludes with future objectives in continuation of the current study.</p>M.S. GaivoronskayaV.V. Semikashev
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2024-12-282024-12-2874849010.25729/esr.2024.04.0011Ranges of Cost-effectiveness of Alternative Energy Carriers for Heating Residential Buildings and Social Facilities
http://esrj.ru/index.php/esr/article/view/2024-04-0012
<p>The energy system of the Irkutsk region has been characterized by excess electricity for many years, since it encompasses several large-scale hydropower and co-generation power plants, and a developed electrical network operating at various voltage levels. In the last three years, the southern part of the region has faced a shortage of electrical power, which has received significant attention and become the subject of discussion and control by federal and regional authorities. The study shows that the shortage of electrical power in the region stems not only from cryptocurrency mining but also from the rapid surge in individual housing construction with electric heating systems. This construction was not coordinated with plans for the development of electrical networks. This paper explores a potential solution to reduce the shortage of electric power by promoting the adoption of natural gas in new individual houses at average Russian prices.</p>V.A. StennikovV.O. GolovshchikovA.V. PenkovskiiA.B. Osak
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2024-12-282024-12-2874919610.25729/esr.2024.04.0012Field Studies of Technologies for Reducing Frost Heaving of Line Supports in the Conditions of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
http://esrj.ru/index.php/esr/article/view/2024-04-0013
<p>Frost heaving of power transmission line supports in regions with permafrost soils directly affects the reliability and uninterruptible operation of power supply systems. The article provides information on the work on field studies of the effectiveness of using anti-heaving coatings and shells "Reline" in application to wooden and concrete foundations of overhead power transmission line supports to reduce the tangential forces of frost heaving of soils in the climatic and geocryological conditions of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). During the work, a test site was set up on a heaving site in the city of Yakutsk, 12 cycles of monitoring the altitude position of the support foundations and the temperature regime of the soil were carried out. The obtained results demonstrate the efficiency of using the tested coatings in the conditions of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia).<br>The work was carried out by Yakutsk Design Research Institute of Construction and Ural Plant of Polymer Technologies "Mayak" by order of PJSC "Yakutskenergo".</p>K. BolvshevV.M. EfimovV.M. BelyakovA.S. Unzhakov
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2024-12-282024-12-28749710510.25729/esr.2024.04.0013Priorities for the Energy Sector of Buryatia in Long-Term Socio-Economic Development Plans
http://esrj.ru/index.php/esr/article/view/2024-04-0014
<p>This study examines the stages of the energy sector development in the Republic of Buryatia alongside the relevant strategic planning documents. The conclusion is made about the decisive role of the energy sector in the long-term development plans of the Republic. The main challenges facing the energy sector in the Republic of Buryatia are identified, highlighting the importance of completing the construction of the Ulan-Ude combined heat and power plant -2 as a solution.</p>Z.B.-D. Dondokov
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2024-12-282024-12-287410611110.25729/esr.2024.04.0014A Simulation Model for Compiling Projected Regional Energy Balances
http://esrj.ru/index.php/esr/article/view/2024-04-0015
<p>The great uncertainty in the values of technical and economic indicators of energy sector development hinders the compilation of projected (calculated) regional energy balances. To address this issue, we propose using the indicator-based analysis aided by simulations to develop projected regional energy balances. This study contributes a simulation model for compiling projected balances, which is meant to facilitate projections of energy sectors of the regions of Russia. The model determines the necessary volumes of extraction, production, and imports of energy resources to ensure that the projected levels of consumption and exports of energy resources outside the region are maintained. The presented model was used to construct indicative fuel and energy balances of the Asian regions of Russia for 2050.</p>R.I. MuzychukA.D. Sokolov
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2024-12-282024-12-287411211610.25729/esr.2024.04.0015Energy Industry of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia): Development Opportunities, Environmental Aspect
http://esrj.ru/index.php/esr/article/view/2024-04-0016
<p>This study reveals the significant difference between the fuel and energy sector in the North of Russia and that in other regions of the country, driven by severe climatic conditions, the remoteness of communities, and intricate transportation networks. These factors constrain prospects for the development of the region and the advancement of its energy systems specifically. To ensure reliable and uninterrupted energy supply, it is essential to carefully consider all energy development factors. It is crucial to take into account the central role of energy in the socio-economic development of the region, as well as the need to reduce environmental impact and ensure the safety of energy infrastructure. According to the Federal Law "On Strategic Planning," the strategic directions for energy development in the northern and Arctic regions should be continually updated. To accomplish these objectives, the theory and methods of the systems approach in energy development studies are applied. Concurrently, it is essential to use tools that ensure the completeness and integrity of the information base for effective strategic planning.</p>N.V. PavlovA.D. Sokolov
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2024-12-282024-12-287411712110.25729/esr.2024.04.0016The Impact of Sizing and Packaging of the Dzhebariki-Khaya Coal on Carbon Emissions Embodied in Final Demand
http://esrj.ru/index.php/esr/article/view/2024-04-0017
<p>The paper provides a quantitative assessment of carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired boiler plants serving large areas of the Northeast of Russia. The assessment is exemplified by a case study of boiler plants fired by the coal sourced from the Dzhebariki-Khaya deposit. The calculations were made under the assumption that all the carbon contained in the delivered coal, including its loss in transit, through spillage and dust, and during combustion, is eventually converted into carbon dioxide through various oxidation processes. The method of calculation relies on a model of the change in the net calorific value of coal during long-term bulk storage in open stockyards and takes into account coal losses that occur throughout a complex supply chain. Two cases are analyzed: (1) the current conditions and (2) with the adoption of coal sizing and big bag packaging. The carbon dioxide emissions produced by the boiler plants running on the Dzhebariki-Khaya coal currently total about 670 thousand tons per heating season. However, coal sizing and bagging can reduce coal deliveries and, consequently, CO2 emissions by 21%.</p>V.E. Zakharov
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2024-12-282024-12-287412212910.25729/esr.2024.04.0017