The Combinatorial Modelling of Vietnam Energy Development

Abstract

The paper describes a combinatorial modelling approach to the research of energy sector development. The idea of the approach is to model a system development in the form of a directed graph with its nodes corresponding to possible states of a system at certain moments of time and arcs characterizing the possibility of transitions from one state to another. The combinatorial modelling is a visual representation of dynamic discrete alternatives. It allows simulating a long-term process of system development under various possible external and internal conditions, and determining an optimal development strategy of the system under study. The formation and analysis procedures of energy development options are implemented in the software package “Corrective”. The distributed computing environment is needed to compute an energy sector development graph. In 2015, the Institute of Energy Science of Vietnamese Academy of Science and Technology performed a study on Vietnam sustainable energy development from 2015 to 2030. Based on the data from this study the combinatorial modelling methods are applied to the formation and analysis of Vietnam energy development options taking into account energy security requirements. The constructed Vietnam energy sector development graph consists of 531442 nodes. It is computed on the cluster located at the Institute for System Dynamics and Control Theory of Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science (Irkutsk). The obtained optimal path of Vietnam sustainable energy development provides the minimum costs of energy sector development and operation under deterministic conditions.