Coal Industry Global Transformations: Analysis and Projections

Abstract

The paper explores the current global trends in coal production, exports, imports, and consumption with focus on China, India, and Russia up to the year 2050. Russia’s coal production in 2022 is shown to rise to 443.6 million tons due to an increase in domestic coal consumption, which made it possible to compensate for a slight decrease in coal exports. At the same time, the growth in domestic coal consumption was 6.1% compared to the level of 2021. Of this, 23% was utilized by the electric power industry, 10.4% for coking, 6.9% for residential, industrial and agricultural consumers, and the remaining 6.8% of coal supplies were delivered to other consumers within the domestic market. In 2023–2024, Russia may see a slight decrease in coal production and export volumes, which is associated with sanctions, a decline in demand of European consumers, and a reduction in the use of this type of fuel or refusal from it in some Asian countries. The possibility of reorienting Russian coal supplies from West to East is limited by the plans of the Asia-Pacific countries along with commissioning new coal capacities in the near future to actively develop wind farms and solar power plants and adopt national hydrogen strategies. These factors, in turn, may lead to a decrease in Russian coal production and exports by 2050. However, it is too early to talk about the end of the “era of coal,” at least until 2030.