Coal Industry Global Transformations: Analysis and Projections

Authors

  • L.S. Plakitkina Energy Research Institite of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.38028/esr.2024.01.0004

Keywords:

coal mining, coal exports, coal imports, coal consumption, coal market, China, India, Russia

Abstract

The paper explores the current global trends in coal production, exports, imports, and consumption with focus on China, India, and Russia up to the year 2050. Russia’s coal production in 2022 is shown to rise to 443.6 million tons due to an increase in domestic coal consumption, which made it possible to compensate for a slight decrease in coal exports. At the same time, the growth in domestic coal consumption was 6.1% compared to the level of 2021. Of this, 23% was utilized by the electric power industry, 10.4% for coking, 6.9% for residential, industrial and agricultural consumers, and the remaining 6.8% of coal supplies were delivered to other consumers within the domestic market. In 2023–2024, Russia may see a slight decrease in coal production and export volumes, which is associated with sanctions, a decline in demand of European consumers, and a reduction in the use of this type of fuel or refusal from it in some Asian countries. The possibility of reorienting Russian coal supplies from West to East is limited by the plans of the Asia-Pacific countries along with commissioning new coal capacities in the near future to actively develop wind farms and solar power plants and adopt national hydrogen strategies. These factors, in turn, may lead to a decrease in Russian coal production and exports by 2050. However, it is too early to talk about the end of the “era of coal,” at least until 2030.

References

“Coal Information 2021,” International Energy Agency Statistics, Electronic database, OECD/IEA, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2021

“Statistics report Key World Energy Statistics,’ International Energy Agency Statistics, OECD/IEA, Sep. 2022, 80 p.

BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Jun. 2023, 69th ed., 2023, 65 p.

Yu. A. Plakitkin, L. S. Plakitkina, K. I. Dyachenko, “Forecast of the development of the global and domestic coal market under the influence of green energy trends and sanctions restrictions,” Coal, no. 8, pp. 66–72, 2023. DOI: 10.18796/0041-5790-2023-8-66-72. (in Russian)

“Novak says Russian coal production up 0.3% in 2022,” TASS.ru, Jan. 11, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://tass.ru/ekonomika/16777769. (in Russian)

I. E. Petrenko, “The results of the work of the Russian coal industry for 2022,” Coal, no. 3, pp. 21–33, 2023. DOI: 10.18796/0041-5790-2023-3-21-33. (in Russian)

H. Reid, N. Banya, “Europe imports more South African coal as Russian ban looms,” Reuters.com, Jun.15, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/europe-imports-more-south-african-coal-russian-ban-looms-2022-06-15

“Ministry of Energy predicts stabilization of coal exports in 2023,” Vedomosti.ru, Jun. 07, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2023/06/07/979009-minenergo-prognoziruet-stabilizatsiyu-eksporta-uglya (in Russian)

“Kazakh coal is too cheap in Russia. Deliveries for January-May decreased by 16%,” Forpost-sevastopol.ru. [Online]. Available: https://forpost-sevastopol.ru/newsfull/941525/kazahskomu-uglyu-v-rossii-slishkom-deshevo-postavki-za-yanvarmaj-snizilis-na-16.html (in Russian)

“China vows to end greenhouse gas emissions by 2060,” Kommersant.ru, Sep. 23, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4502238?ysclid=lum1d4mqtw543885040 (in Russian)

“Achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 will cost India six times more than China,” Plus One, Mar. 22, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://plus-one.ru/news/2021/03/22/dostizhenie-uglerodnoy-neytralnost-k-2050-godu-oboydetsya-indii-v-shest-raz-dorozhe-chem-kitayu (in Russian)

“Poverty and death: the power engineer spoke about the possible rejection of coal in South Africa,” Forpost-sz.ru, Aug. 18, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://forpost-sz.ru/a/2023-08-18/nishcheta-i-smert-ehnergetik-rasskazal-o-vozmozhnom-otkaze-ot-uglya-v-yuar (in Russian)

Yu. A. Plakitkin, L. S. Plakitkina, K. I. Dyachenko, “The coal industry of Russia in the conditions of low-carbon energy and sanctions restrictions,” Industry of Eurasia, no. 1-2(2), pp. 56–62, 2022. (in Russian)

Yu. A. Plakitkin, L. S. Plakitkina, K. I. Dyachenko, “The main trends in the development of the coal industry in the world and Russia in the conditions of low-carbon energy. Part I. Analysis of the pace and proportions of the development of the coal industry, formed under the influence of the leading countries of the coal market,” Mining Journal, no. 7, pp. 10–16, 2022. (in Russian)

Yu. A. Plakitkin, L. S. Plakitkina, K. I. Dyachenko, “The main trends in the development of the coal industry in the world and Russia in the conditions of low-carbon energy. Part II. Low-carbon development as a factor in reducing demand for coal and its impact on plans for the development of coal generation,” Mining Journal, no. 8, pp.17–23, 2022. (in Russian).

Downloads

Published

2024-04-30