Competitiveness of Export-Oriented Systems of Long-Range Energy Supply

Authors

  • E.A. Tyurina Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia; Irkutsk National Research Technical University, Irkutsk, Russia
  • A.S. Mednikov Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia
  • P.Yu. Elsukov Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia
  • S.N. Sushko Irkutsk National Research Technical University, Irkutsk, Russia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.38028/esr.2024.01.0005

Keywords:

Methanol, natural gas, coal, export, Russia, Asia, mathematical modeling

Abstract

The paper examines process chains including production, transport, and conversion of energy resources from Siberia and the Russian Far East to Asian countries. The study aims to find the most effective ways to supply energy to end consumers at various distances. The options considered include pipeline transport of natural gas from eastern regions of Russia to Asian countries; rail transport of coal from Russian export-oriented deposits to Asian countries; natural gas conversion into methanol, with methanol transport through pipelines of various diameters to Asian countries; and coal conversion into methanol, with methanol transport through pipelines of various diameters to Asian countries. Optimization is performed using previously developed mathematical models.

References

S. Johnson, L. Rachel, C. Wolfram, “Design and implementation of the price cap on Russian oil exports,” Journal of Comparative Economics, vol. 51, no 4, pp. 1244–1252, 2023. DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2023.06.001.

C. K. Chyong, J. Henderson, “Quantifying the economic value of Russian gas in Europe in the aftermath of the 2022 war in Ukraine,” Energy, vol. 292, 130604, 2024. DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.130604.

S. Paltsev, “Scenarios for Russia's natural gas exports to 2050,” Energy Economics, vol. 42, pp. 262–270, 2014. DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.01.005.

S. Fortescue, “Russia's economic prospects in the Asia Pacific Region,” Journal of Eurasian Studies, vol. 7, no 1, pp. 49–59, 2016. DOI: 10.1016/j.euras.2015.10.005

I. Overland, J. Loginova, “The Russian coal industry in an uncertain world: Finally pivoting to Asia,” Energy Research & Social Science, vol. 102, 103150, 2023. DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2023.103150.

P. A. Yanguas-Parra, N. Malz, P. Oei, A. Furnaro, Ch. Hauenstein, G. Quiceno et al, “Perspective: How a short-term relapse to coal could put exporting countries and just transition processes at risk,” Energy Research & Social Science, vol. 97, 102989, 2023. DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2023.102989.

P. N. Kuznetsov, A. Ilyushetchkin, D. Chupin, M. Sukhorukova, “10 - Coal industry and the use of coal in the Russian Federation,” in Woodhead Publishing Series in Energy. The Coal Handbook (Second Edition), vol. 2, D. Osborne, Ed. Woodhead Publishing, 2023, pp.301–320. DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-12-824327-5.00003-X.

V. Kutcherov, M. Morgunova, V. Bessel, A. Lopatin, “Russian natural gas exports: An analysis of challenges and opportunities,” Energy Strategy Reviews, vol. 30, 100511, 2020. DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2020.100511.

N. Hosoe, “The cost of war: Impact of sanctions on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine,” Journal of Policy Modelling, vol. 45, no 2, pp. 305-319, 2023. DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.04.001.

Yu. M. Vasiliev, G. M. Fridman, “Mathematical modeling european gas market: advanced forecasting optimization model for natural gas flows through a pipeline network,” News of the St. Petersburg State Economic University, vol. 3, pp. 15–24, 2019. (In Russian)

S. M. Senderov, D. S. Krupenev, S. V. Vorobev, N. M. Beresneva, D. A. Boyarkin, “Methodological Approach to Assessing the Level of Significance of Critically Important Energy Facilities in the Interconnected Operation of Energy Systems,” Izvestiya RAN. Energetika, no 2, pp. 31–45, 2023. (In Russian)

S. V. Vorobev, S. M. Senderov, A. V. Edelev, “Search for Directions for Minimizing Gas Deficiency in Consumers in Emergency Situations at the Most Important Objects of the Gas Industry,” Izvestiya RAN. Energetika, no 2, pp. 119–127, 2021. (In Russian)

B. G. Saneev, G. G. Lachkov, “Features of gasification of the Asian regions of Russia,” Energy Policy, no. 2, pp. 70–77, 2023. DOI: 10.46920/2409-5516_2023_2180_70.

Q. Zhang, X. Mao, J. Lu, Zh. Guo, Z. Duman, Yo. Chen, P. Song, K. Tu, “EU-Russia energy decoupling in combination with the updated NDCs impacts on global fossil energy trade and carbon emissions,” Applied Energy, vol. 356, 122415, 2024. DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.122415.

S. Perdana, M. Vielle, M. Schenckery, “European Economic impacts of cutting energy imports from Russia: A computable general equilibrium analysis,” Energy Strategy Reviews, vol. 44, 101006, 2022. DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2022.101006.

B. McWilliams, G. Sgaravatti, S. Tagliapietra, G. Zachmann, “How would the European Union fare without Russian energy?,” Energy Policy, vol. 174, 113413, 2023. DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113413.

M. Shakib, K. Sohag, M. K. Hassan, R. Vasilyeva, “Finance and export diversifications Nexus in Russian regions: Role of trade globalization and regional potential,” Emerging Markets Review, vol. 57, 101059, 2023. DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2023.101059.

P.R.L. Alves, “The Russia–Ukraine conflict and the amplitude of chaos in the prices of Natural Gas commodities,” Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, vol. 179, 114452, 2024. DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2024.114452.

A. Khurshid, Kh. Khan, A. Rauf, J. Cifuentes-Faura, “Effect of geopolitical risk on resources prices in the global and Russian-Ukrainian context: A novel Bayesian structural model,” Resources Policy, vol. 88, 104536, 2024. DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104536.

Md. M. Islam, K. Sohag, A. Berezin, B. S. Sergi, “Factor proportions model for Russian mineral supply-driven global energy transition: Does externality matter?,” Energy Economics, vol. 129, 107242, 2024 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107242.

Yu. Sokolova, N. Davidson, O. Mariev, “Global energy transition and foreign environmental regulations: Impacts on Russian regions’ export volumes,” Journal of Environmental Management, vol. 352, 120001, 2024. DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.120001.

M. R. Islam, Pipelines. Emerging Technologies and Design Criteria. A volume in Sustainable Oil and Gas Development Series. Gulf Professional Publishing, 2023.

A. M. Kler, E. A. Tyurina, A. S. Mednikov, “A plant for methanol and electricity production: Technical-economic analysis,” Energy, no. 165, 890–899, 2018. DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.09.179.

N. I. Voropai, S. V. Podkovalnikov, V. V. Trufanov et al., Rationale for the development of electric power systems: Methodology, models, methods, their use. Novosibirsk, Russia: Nauka, 2015. (In Russian)

“Russian gas market,” [Online]. Available: http://www.gazprom.ru/about/marketing/russia/

“Government statistics,” [Online]. Available: http://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/31448/

“Freight transportation,” [Online]. Available: http://cargo.rzd.ru

Downloads

Published

2024-04-30