A Methodological Approach for Scenario Modeling of the Integrated Wind, Solar, And Small Hydro Power Output to Cost-Effectively Meet the Peak Power Demand in Power Systems
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25729/esr.2025.03.0002Keywords:
Power system, enewable energy sources, serving electricity demand, online management, load profile, aggregation of renewable power plantsAbstract
This study contributes a methodological framework for identification of a holistic model of power output by multiple renewable power plants integrated into a power system at locations with distinct meteorological and geographical conditions. The scenarios generated based on individual predictions relying on medoids clustering demonstrate better capturing of the variable nature of the total output from multiple renewable power plants. A case study of the integration of several renewable power plants into a power system is presented to show that the direct prediction of the total output by these green sources proves effective in cutting operational costs of the system, mostly by better serving the peak load demand. The methodological framework proposed in this paper can be used for online management of power systems with several different renewable power plants such as solar power plants, wind farms, and small hydropower plants. This approach also enables the estimation of the contribution of each source to the overall output.
References
Renewable Capacity Statistics 2024. IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency). [Online]. Available: https://www.irena.org/Publications/2024/Mar/Renewable-Capacity-Statistics-2024. Accessed on: Oct. 3, 2025.
Global Solar Power Generation. The Global Energy Association. Available: https://globalenergyprize.org. Accessed on: Oct. 3, 2025.
WWEA Annual Report 2023: Record Year for Windpower. [Online]. Available: https://wwindea.org/AnnualReport2023. Accessed on: Oct. 3, 2025.
P. V. Ilyushin, A. V. Pazderin, “Requirements for power stations islanding automation,” in Proc. the 2018 International Conference on Industrial Engineering, Applications and Manufacturing (ICIEAM), 15–18 May 2018, Moscow, Russia, 2018.
K. Guerra, P. Haro, R. E. Gutierrez, A. Gomez-Borea, “Facing the high share of variable renewable energy in the power system: Flexibility and stability requirements,” Journal of Applied Energy, vol. 310, Art. no. 118561, 2022.
H. Chandler, Harnessing variable renewables: A guide to the balancing challenge. Paris, France: International Energy Agency, 2011.
P. V. Ilyushin, O. V. Shepovalova, S. P. Filippov, A. A. Nekrasov, “The effect of complex load on the reliable operation of solar photovoltaic and wind power stations integrated into energy systems and into off-grid energy areas,” Energy Reports, vol. 8, рp. 1515–1529, 2022.
A. M. Hashimov, N. R. Rahmanov, A. Z. Mahmudova, J. M. B. Morillo, “Assessment of Probability Distribution Sequence for Voltage Stability in a Power system with Large Share Integration of Variable Renewable Sources,” International Journal on Technical and Physical Problems of Engineering (IJTPE), iss. 55, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 291–296, 2023.
V. A. Stennikov, V. G. Kurbatsky, N. R. Rahmanov, G. B. Guliyev, V. A. Shakirov, Regional Aspects of Wind Power. Irkutsk, Russia: Melentiev Energy Systems Institute SB RAS, 2020. (In Russian)
N. Rahmanov, H. B. Guliyev, F. Sh. Ibrahimov, Z. A. Mammadov, “Determination of optimal dimensions of hybrid AC/DC distributed generation system with renewable sources for autonomous power supply of remote locations,” in Proc. the Rudenko International Conference on Methodological Problems in Reliability Study of Large Energy Systems (RSES 2024), vol. 584, 2024.
G. Niu, Y. Ji, Z. Zhang, W. Wang, J. Chen, P. Yu, “Clustering analysis of typical scenarios of island supply system by using cohesive hierarchical clustering-based K-Means clustering method,” Energy Reports, vol. 7, suppl. 6, рр. 250–256, 2021.
A. L. Kulikov, O. V. Shepovalova, P. V. Ilyushin, S. P. Filippov, S. V. Chirkov, “Control of electric power quality indicators in distribution networks comprising a high share of solar photovoltaic and wind power stations,” Energy Reports, vol. 8. рp. 1501–1514, 2022.
A. Buttler, F. Dinkel, S. Franz, H. Spliethoff, “Variability of wind and solar power – An assessment of the current situation in the European Union based on the year 2014,” Energy, vol. 106, рр. 147–161, 2016.
S. Han, L. Zhang, Y. Liu, H. Zhang, J. Yan, L. Li, X. Lei, X. Wang, “Quantitative evaluation method for the complementarity of wind-solar-hydro power and optimization of wind-solar ratio,” Appl. Energy, vol. 236, рр. 973–984, 2019.
K. Engeland, M. Borga, J.-D. Creutin, B. Francois, M.-H. Ramos, J.-P. Vidal, “Space–time variability of climate variables and intermittent renewably electricity production. A review,” Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev., vol. 79, рр. 600–617, 2017.
G. Ren, J. Wan, D. Yu, “Spatial and temporal assessments of complementarity for renewable energy resources in China,” Energy, vol. 177, pp. 262–275, 2019.
P. E. Bett, H. E. Thornton, “The climatological relationships between wind and solar energy supply in Britain,” Renew. Energy, vol. 87, pp. 96–110, 2016.
J. Peter, “How does climate change affect electricity system planning and optimal allocation of variable renewable energy,” Appl. Energy, vol. 252, Art. no. 113397, 2019.
N. R. Rakhmanov, V. G. Kurbatsky, H. B. Guliyev, N. V. Tomin, R. N. Rakhmanov, “Analysis and modeling of harmonic distortions in consumer's distribution networks, containing a powerful non-linear load,” E3S Web of Conf., vol. 58, Art. no. 03015, 2018.
A. M. Hashimov, H. B. Guliyev, A. R. Babayeva, “Shunt reactors control algorithm using fuzzy sets theory,” International Journal on Technical and physical problems of engineering (IJTPE), iss. 38, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 10–15, 2019.
A. M. Hashimov, N. M. Rahmanov, N. M. Tabatabaei, H. B. Guliyev, F. Sh. Ibrahimov, “Probabilistic evaluation of voltage stability limit of power system under the conditions of accidental emergency outages of lines and generators,” International Journal on Technical and physical problems of engineering (IJTPE), iss. 43, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 40–45, 2020.
N. R. Rahmanov, V. G. Kurbatskiy, H. B. Guliyev, N. V. Tomin, Z. Mammadov, “Probabilistic assessment of power system mode with a varying degree of wind sources integration,” E3S Web of Conf., vol. 25, Art. no. 02003, 2017.
A. Rylov, P. Ilyushin, A. Kulikov, K. Suslov, “Testing Photovoltaic Power Plants for Participation in General Primary Frequency Control under Various Topology and Operating Conditions,” Energies, vol. 14, no. 16, Art. no. 5179, 2021.
P. V. Ilyushin, A. L. Kulikov, S. P. Filippov, “Adaptive algorithm for automated undervoltage protection of industrial power districts with distributed generation facilities,” in Proc. the 2019 International Russian Automation Conference, RusAutoCon, 08–14 Sep. 2019, Sochi, Russia, 2019.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Energy Systems Research
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
