Вероятностное моделирование установившихся теплогидравлических режимов в трубопроводных сетях древовидной конфигурации

N.N. Novitsky; O.V. Vanteeva

doi:10.25729/esr.2025.04.0002

Authors

N.N. Novitsky Melentiev Energy Systems Institute SB RAS, Irkutsk, Russia
O.V. Vanteeva Melentiev Energy Systems Institute SB RAS, Irkutsk, Russia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25729/esr.2025.04.0002

Keywords:

Probabilistic modeling, tree-like configuration, pipeline networks, thermal-hydraulic conditions

Abstract

This study focuses on a problem of probabilistic modeling of steady-state thermal-hydraulic conditions of a tree-configured pipeline network, which occur under the influence of random external factors. An original algorithm designed to ensure acceptable accuracy and high computational efficiency is proposed to solve the probabilistic modeling problem. Alongside the models introduced in the study, the main tenets of the proposed approach are presented and finite formulas for calculating the main statistical characteristics (means, variances, and covariances) of all operating parameters (flow rates, pressures, and temperatures) are explained. Numerical calculations demonstrate the superior capabilities of the proposed algorithm compared to other alternative methods, including matrix stepwise and statistical testing methods, in terms of both accuracy and speed.

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