Methodology for Comprehensive Hierarchical Reliability Assessment and its Application to Heating System Operation and Expansion

Authors

  • V.A. Stennikov Melentiev Energy Systems Institute SB RAS, Irkutsk, Russia
  • I.V. Postnikov Melentiev Energy Systems Institute SB RAS, Irkutsk, Russia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25729/esr.2026.01.0011

Keywords:

Comprehensive hierarchical reliability analysis, ensuring reliability, heat supply effectiveness, heating system, Markov random process, nodal cost of thermal energy, nodal reliability indices, radius of cost-effective heat supply, reliability, the theory of hydraulic circuits

Abstract

This paper highlights the importance of a comprehensive hierarchical approach to the heating system reliability analysis. The core idea behind it is to integrate the methods and models used to assess the reliability of individual subsystems constituting heating systems, such as thermal energy sources and heat networks. This assessment accounts for a range of significant internal (systemic) and external factors. The main principles, provisions, and components of the methodology for the comprehensive hierarchical reliability analysis of heating systems are given. The methodology is employed in the key tasks related to assessing and ensuring (synthesizing) the operation of the studied systems. Building on the methodological approaches, models, and algorithms designed for the said analysis, this study introduces formulations, methods, models, and computational tools for new tasks of the long-term advancement of modern heating systems. These systems encompass both district and distributed thermal energy generation, featuring prosumer subsystems. The paper synthesizes the findings from the recent studies conducted by the contributing authors

References

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Published

2026-03-31

Issue

Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): Energy Systems Research

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Articles

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