Energy Systems Research

Regional Priorities of the Eastern Energy Strategy of Russia: the Past, the Present, and an Outlook for the Future

Boris G. Saneev — 2023-03-30

The study elucidates key defining features of Russia's economic development in the new economic context that made it necessary to reconsider energy policy priorities. We present the initial conditions, targets, and strategic directions for development of the energy sector in the eastern regions of the country. The study highlights priority areas of energy cooperation in technological innovations between Russia and countries of Northeast Asia and lists prerequisites and initiatives needed for their successful implementation.

Change in the Architecture of Energy Markets in North-East Asia

Sergei Popov — 2023-04-30

The paper aims to identify promising areas of energy cooperation between Russia and the countries of East Asia. A review of the main groups of factors (technological and techno-economic, energy security, geopolitical, and economic), which influence the change in the existing architecture of energy markets, is made. Assumptions are made about the directions for the development of the transport and institutional infrastructure for energy export from Russia. The findings indicate the need for accelerated development of hydrogen technologies and emphasize the importance of energy cooperation institutions. The paper proposes creating a new regional market, i.e., the market for green certificates for hydrogen.

Key Defining Features of the Electric Power Industry in Asian Regions of Russia in Light of Decarbonization Efforts

Georgiy Lachkov — 2023-04-30

The article examines key defining features of the electric power industry of Asian regions of Russia in light of decarbonization efforts and does this through a case study of integrated power systems of Siberia and the East. We analyze the main characteristics of these integrated power systems, including the mix of installed capacity of power plants, of electricity generation and consumption, and of the fuel thermal power plants burn. On the basis of this analysis, we conclude that the mix of generating capacity of the considered electric power systems falls short of being perfect from the standpoint of decarbonization efforts and that there is a need to convert some of the existing thermal power plants to natural gas combustion and prioritize natural gas combustion when designing new ones.

Energy Future of the Russian Far East: Low-Carbon Development Potential

Olga Dyomina — 2023-04-30

The paper discusses the current and future-oriented models of development of the energy sector of the Russian Far East. We demonstrate that the current model is aimed at maximizing the external rent and resource rent, and it is characterized by a low priority of the environmental policy and, in fact, ignores the global trend of the energy transition. We assess the risks of sticking to the current model and "no action taken" development of the energy sector. We review institutional conditions and identify barriers to the development of low- and zero-carbon technologies in the current model. The future-oriented model aims to preserve the advantages of the current model and complement it with high-tech production facilities in the energy sector along with the transformation of the economy and energy in line with the energy transition trends. Hydrogen technologies and renewable energy are currently the two main distinct groups of technologies that are part of the future-oriented model. By focusing on the former, we analyze the conditions for the development of hydrogen technologies as applied to the subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District and identify competitive advantages and limiting factors.

The Fuel and Energy Balance of the Asian Regions of Russia for 2020

Roman Muzychuk — 2023-04-30

The Asian regions of Russia play a significant role in the energy sector of the country. Almost 96% of coal and 25% of electricity produced in the country is produced in Asian Russia. More than 50% of this electricity is produced by hydro power plants. The reporting fuel and energy balances (FEBs) are the basis for strategic planning of the energy development of these regions. Specialists of the Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ESI SB RAS) built the reporting FEBs of the Asian regions for 2020 using the information and reference system for the development of regional FEBs. The FEB made for the Asian regions of Russia give the opportunity to determine the structures of production and consumption of fuel and energy resources in the territory and evaluate the efficiency of their use. The analysis of the FEBs shows the need to improve the energy balance of the Asian regions in terms of changing its structure and increasing energy efficiency and environmental friendliness of fuel use.

Gas Industry in the Economic Space of the Russian Far East: Expectations and Reality

Olga Dyomina — 2023-04-30

The study outlines the evolution undergone by the gas industry in the Russian Far East and reviews the main features of its resource base, transport infrastructure, and processing facilities. We analyze the goals of the Eastern Gas Program and its results achieved. We reveal that for two decades, the development of the industry was carried out in an extensive way and was subordinated to the pursuit of national interests. We consider three configurations of the gas industry in the region. The configurations are related in such a way that to arrive at the next configuration the preceding one is complemented by production facilities representing the next link of the process chain. The gas industry in its first configuration includes natural gas production and transport companies; in the second configuration - gas processing facilities; in the third configuration - gas chemical facilities. Based on the analysis of structural shifts, we show that the gas industry in the first configuration underwent development in the region at an advanced pace but remained an enclave in the structure of the economy. Estimates of the effects of sectoral superstructures in the format of the second and third configurations are projections, since the projects to build the Amur Gas Processing Plant and the Amur Gas Chemical Complex are still underway. We used an input-output model to obtain estimates of regional GRP growth rate in the case of development of these industries. It was found that the emergence of gas processing in the region's economy will increase the GRP by 11.2% compared to 2015, and the emergence of gas processing and gas chemical industries will provide a total increase in the GRP by 13.9%. According to the results of calculations based on the dynamic model of economic interactions FrEEDM, given that all process lines of the Amur Gas Processing Plant are put into operation, the above increase in the GRP can be achieved by 2030.

Transforming Structure of Generating Capacities in the Eastern Arctic with Large-Scale Development of Resources

Irina Yu. Ivanova — 2023-04-30

The paper presents estimates of the electric power required for the implementation of projects for the development of deposits of mineral resources in the Eastern Arctic. The creation of new industrial load centers or expansion of existing ones will call for significant changes in the energy infrastructure. The estimates presented indicate that the demand for electricity for promising projects in the Taimyr-Turukhan zone is commensurate with current consumption; in the North Yakutsk zone, the demand exceeds the consumption by almost 6 times, and in the Chukotka zone, it is larger by more than 3 times. The paper considers changes in the structure of generating capacities in the territorial zones of the Eastern Arctic for two possible development scenarios: the creation of a low-capacity nuclear power industry and the development of an Arctic liquefied natural gas infrastructure. The provided types of energy sources are rational and substantiated by the conducted modeling studies.

On Development Prospects of the Energy Industry in the Russian Far North

Nikita Pavlov — 2023-04-30

This paper reviews the research activities of the Energy Department of the IPTPN SB RAS from 2018 to this day with a focus on development prospects of the energy industry in the Far North of the country through a case study of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). Systems studies of the energy industry require accumulating a wide array of information that vary in terms of its granularity. We review published research that addressed the issue of how researchers the raw data and what established sources of data are available to facilitate the analysis of energy systems operating in Yakutia. The aim of this study is to outline approaches to enhancing the quality of both fuel supply and modeled projections of the outcomes of integrated heating and cooling systems deployment in the city of Yakutsk. The simulations we performed attested to the availability of a sufficient amount of the waste heat as long as they have been in operation, including the periods of maximum possible cooling load. The values of key economic performance metrics support our claim of economic feasibilty of such a project, given sufficient demand for cooling. The study also details recurring failures of one of the components of engineering systems operating in an Arctic village of Yakutia and proposes possible solutions. We conclude that either the design of the boiler or the material of the pipes has to be changed there. This is due to the fact that the pipes fail to operate properly under the extreme operating conditions, since the low ambient temperatures cause the intensification of heat transfer, and a lower temperature of exhaust gases contributes to moisture condensation and corrosion of the pipes. Finally, we outline main directions to be pursued in ensuring environmental protection by the efficient use of fuel and energy resources of Yakutia and detail the methods to be used to this end.

Environmental Considerations Related to Generation Facilities in the Regions of the Asian Part of Russia

Elena P. Maysyuk — 2023-04-30

The features unique to the operation of energy facilities in the Asian part of Russia influence environmental agenda setting in these regions. The Asian regions account for a large share of Russia's mix of air pollutant emissions and production of coal ash, with boiler plants responsible for a significant part of their amounts. Particulate matter and sulfur oxides dominate the ingredient composition of pollutant emissions, unlike in European Russia. From an environmental point of view, what makes regions of the Asian part of Russia stand apart in a rather egregious way is the large proportion of cities with high levels of air pollution. Of the 37 such cities in the country, 27 are located in Siberia and the Russian Far East. The regions of the Asian part of Russia, due to the predominance of coal in their fuel balances, are characterized by a high share of CO2 emissions from generation facilities. Specific carbon dioxide emissions in the Asian regions are 1.5 times higher than in the European part of the Russian Federation. Given that in the near future it is unlikely for coal to be completely eliminated from fuel balances of the Asian regions, in order to decarbonize Russia's energy sector, a number of strategies of low-carbon development should be developed for these regions.

Prospects for the Use of Wood Fuel in the Context of Low-carbon Energy Development

Ekaterina Ivantsova — 2023-04-30

Wood fuel can play an important role as a CO₂-neutral alternative as part of the low-carbon energy transition. Furthermore, given the sanctions imposed recently, the development of the domestic market for wood fuel is extremely relevant for the timber industry of Russia as most of the pellets produced were previously exported. The article examines the current parameters of the development of the biofuel market and provides a comparative analysis of various types of fuel in terms of their economic and environmental performance. We also elucidate the key advantages of wood pellets as a fuel alternative to coal and fuel oil. Thus, the production of wood pellets seems to be very promising both in terms of the development of wood industries and in the context of low-carbon energy development. In the course of the study we identified the factors that act as constraints on the growth of the fuel pellet market, the prospects for overcoming them, and the necessary measures of government support for the industry (most notably, subsidy mechanisms and infrastructure development). The key takeaway from this study is that there are undeniable advantages that come with biofuels, in particular, wood pellets, the use of which in Russia is very promising provided that the economic incentives offered by the government to both manufacturers and residential consumers are in place.

Analysis of Carbon Sequestration Potential of Forests of the Asian Russia

Elena Gubiy — 2023-04-30

We estimated the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration and release by managed forests in Siberia and the Russian Far East. The data from "National report of the Russian Federation on the inventory of human-induced emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases not controlled under the Montreal Protocol for 1990-2010" served as input data. We calculated the amounts of CO2 taken up and released. The net CO2 flux is a difference between the CO2 sequestrated and CO2 released. The sequestration potential of forests depends on the climatic conditions of the area and the species of woody plants growing there. Many forests die every year, and the CO2 release by forests is caused by clear-cuttings and natural disasters. The highest sequestration rate of forests was observed in Omsk and Irkutsk regions, the lowest in the Chukotka autonomous district and Magadan region. The largest amounts of CO2 were sequestrated in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and Krasnoyarsk territory. The highest release rates were observed in the Chukotka autonomous district and the Khabarovsk territory, the lowest – in the Novosibirsk region, Kemerovo region, and Kamchatka territory. We conclude that nearly half of the total CO2 sequestration by managed forests in Russia was contributed by its Asian regions, with 27.5% by the Siberian Federal District and 20.9% by the Russian Far East

The Effect of Energy Generation Mix on Air Quality in the Siberian Regions

Ekaterina Syrtsova — 2023-04-30

Production of electricity and heat makes a significant contribution to environmental pollution. The article shows that key factors behind the negative impact of this type of activity on air quality are the power generation mix and the type of fuel used. In order to address environmental issues facing the Siberian regions it is necessary to expand the use of natural gas and introduce the best available technologies of coal combustion at existing thermal power plants in order to reduce emissions of the most hazardous pollutants.

Hydrogen technologies and prospects for their use in the Asian regions of Russia

Oleg Baldynov — 2023-04-30

The paper discusses the prerequisites for the development of hydrogen infrastructure and the scope of application of hydrogen technologies in the Asian regions of Russia (ARR). The previous approach to the creation of a hydrogen infrastructure in Russia may be revised due to economic sanctions and the impossibility of technology transfer. The available largest and most efficient resources of crude hydrocarbons and coal (nonrenewable energy resources – (NRER)), as well as the significant potential of renewable energy allow large-scale production of hydrogen in the Asian regions of Russia. There are also preconditions for the use of hydrogen technologies for energy end-users in this territory. The creation of large pilot testing grounds in isolated power systems of the Asian regions of Russia will make it possible to enhance and develop the hydrogen production, storage, and transport technologies to prepare them for delivery to export markets for energy equipment and services.