"Floating" threshold values for energy security indicators describing the tariffs of energy resources

  • Elena V. Bycova Institute of Power Engineering of Academy of Sciences of Moldova, Republic of Moldova
Keywords: indicator, tariff, GDP, energy security, threshold values


The paper briefly presents the methodological approaches to analyzing the energy security and the system of indicators used in Moldova. One of the tasks is to determine the threshold values of indicators, which, when exceeded, indicate a state of crisis.

The threshold values are determined for the entire time series of values and for each indicator individually. Different approaches can be used. However, for the indicators describing energy tariffs, the attempts to use fixed thresholds for the entire time series were unsuccessful.

Tariffs for energy resources and GDP are interrelated. Tariffs are involved in the calculations of Intermediate Consumption - one of the GDP components. The growth of tariffs is one of the reasons for the decline in GDP.

 In this regard, there was a need for a special new approach to the development of threshold values of tariff indicators that would be related to annual changes in GDP.

The idea that the growth of tariffs should not exceed the GDP growth was used to determine the threshold values.

The annual values of the maximum possible growth of tariffs are obtained based on the dynamics of the GDP growth. They gave the ("floating") thresholds for tariff indicators for each year of the time series.