A Methodology for Performance and Reliability Analysis of Prosumers’ Local Heat Sources in District Heating System

Abstract

The paper focuses on two problems addressed in the studies on the prosumer in district heating systems. The first problem is associated with load distribution in the district heating systems with prosumers. The research proposes a bi-level model for solving this problem to determine an optimal balance between the load of district heat sources and prosumer-owned heat sources. The second problem concerns the reliability of heating for consumers to be provided through the optimal distribution of reliability parameters among components of the system, given the capabilities of the prosumer to supply part of load by their heat sources. The methods and models are proposed to solve this problem. They are based on the theory of random processes, theory of hydraulic circuits, and basic laws of cogeneration. The case study results obtained using the developed methodology demonstrate a potential economic benefit and reliability effect of involving the prosumer in heat supply. The conclusions and directions for further research are formulated.