A Simulation Model for Compiling Projected Regional Energy Balances
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25729/esr.2024.04.0015Keywords:
energy sector, energy balance, Asian regions of Russia, indicator-based analysis, simulation model, projectionAbstract
The great uncertainty in the values of technical and economic indicators of energy sector development hinders the compilation of projected (calculated) regional energy balances. To address this issue, we propose using the indicator-based analysis aided by simulations to develop projected regional energy balances. This study contributes a simulation model for compiling projected balances, which is meant to facilitate projections of energy sectors of the regions of Russia. The model determines the necessary volumes of extraction, production, and imports of energy resources to ensure that the projected levels of consumption and exports of energy resources outside the region are maintained. The presented model was used to construct indicative fuel and energy balances of the Asian regions of Russia for 2050.
References
Order of the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation. No. 1169, “On Approval of the Procedure for the Compilation of Energy Balances of Subjects of the Russian Federation and Municipal Entities.” (In Russian)
Decision of the State Duma Energy Committee (2024, Jan. 17). No. 3.25-5/97, On approval of the recommendations of the parliamentary hearings of the State Duma Energy Committee on “Construction of energy balances of Russia and its regions: problems and solutions.” (In Russian)
N. M. Storonsky, I. V. Tverskoy, V. N. Tolmachev, R. R. Sibgatullin, “The gaping unknowns. How to reconcile the projected energy balance?” Neftegazovaya Vertikal', no. 9, pp. 14–21, 2022. (In Russian)
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