Energy Demand Projections under Decarbonization of the Russian Economy
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25729/esr.2025.01.0004Keywords:
projections, model, energy consumption, energy efficiency, low-carbon technology, greenhouse gas emissionsAbstract
This study discusses energy demand projections in the context of the transition to a low-carbon model of economic growth in line with the adopted Strategy for Long-Term Development of the Russian Federation with Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions to 2050. We analyze the key areas for enhancing energy efficiency in different sectors of the economy through structural changes, adoption of low-carbon technologies, deep electrification of manufacturing and non-manufacturing processes. The study relies on a set of interrelated optimization, simulation, and input-output models as its methodological backbone. Each of the models serves its specific purpose and is tailored to a specific level of data aggregation. We report our projections of the dynamics of demand for fuel and energy for one of the scenarios of economic development to 2060 under decarbonization of the Russian economy. We show the future dynamics of energy intensity reduction as compared to that of the leading countries of the world. The study also provides estimates of extra demand for electricity resulting from active electrification of industrial and household processes, as well as intensification of electric transport development. Even though our findings are admittedly exploratory and warrant further research, they allow outlining a possible range of changes in energy consumption in Russia at different rates of diffusion of low-carbon technologies and can be instrumental in developing long-term programs and strategies for economic and energy development.
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