Prospective Markets for Russian and Mongolian Energy Resources in the Region of North-East Asia

Abstract

The paper shows the importance of East Asian countries for energy export from Russia and Mongolia. Groups of factors that affect the development of the global and regional energy the most and are considered in the long-term forecast of energy consumption are identified. The high-tech energy development scenario built by the Institute of Energy Economics of Japan in 2021 for China and Japan is analyzed. The scenario assumes a decrease in energy consumption in Japan and its stagnation in China. This effect is to be achieved by enhancing energy efficiency and restructuring energy consumption. Both countries will reduce coal and oil consumption, but increase the share of nuclear and renewable energy. Japan will also cut down the consumption of natural gas. The paper concludes that, given the limited resource potential in China and the “island” economies of East Asia, even in the context of a forced energy transition, there will remain favorable prospects for the export of traditional energy sources from Russia and Mongolia to these markets.