Gas Industry in the Economic Space of the Russian Far East: Expectations and Reality
Keywords:Eastern Gas Program, the Russian Far East, Analysis of Structural Shifts, Gas Processing, Natural Gas Production, Model of Economic Interactions
The study outlines the evolution undergone by the gas industry in the Russian Far East and reviews the main features of its resource base, transport infrastructure, and processing facilities. We analyze the goals of the Eastern Gas Program and its results achieved. We reveal that for two decades, the development of the industry was carried out in an extensive way and was subordinated to the pursuit of national interests. We consider three configurations of the gas industry in the region. The configurations are related in such a way that to arrive at the next configuration the preceding one is complemented by production facilities representing the next link of the process chain. The gas industry in its first configuration includes natural gas production and transport companies; in the second configuration - gas processing facilities; in the third configuration - gas chemical facilities. Based on the analysis of structural shifts, we show that the gas industry in the first configuration underwent development in the region at an advanced pace but remained an enclave in the structure of the economy. Estimates of the effects of sectoral superstructures in the format of the second and third configurations are projections, since the projects to build the Amur Gas Processing Plant and the Amur Gas Chemical Complex are still underway. We used an input-output model to obtain estimates of regional GRP growth rate in the case of development of these industries. It was found that the emergence of gas processing in the region's economy will increase the GRP by 11.2% compared to 2015, and the emergence of gas processing and gas chemical industries will provide a total increase in the GRP by 13.9%. According to the results of calculations based on the dynamic model of economic interactions FrEEDM, given that all process lines of the Amur Gas Processing Plant are put into operation, the above increase in the GRP can be achieved by 2030.
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